Australia supports Economic Reform in Vietnam (Aus4Reform)
Vietnam economic growth in 2019 can reach 6.82%
Vietnam economic growth in 2019 can reach 6.82%
The report of the Central Institute for Economic Management shows that Vietnam's GDP in the first 6 months increased by 6.76%, higher than the same period in the period of 2011-2017. This result is not far from the 2019 growth target (6.8 - 7.0%).
The results are published at the seminar "Vietnam's economy in the first 6 months of 2019: Results and Perspectives" supported by the Central Institute for Economic Management in the framework of the Australia Supports Vietnam's Economic Reform (Aus4Reform) program.
According to experts, the first half of 2019 has witnessed the context of the world economy has many uncertainties, tensions, geopolitical conflicts, extremism continue complicated developments, US - China trade war has been very unpredictable, the policy orientation of some key economies changes very quickly. As a small economy, and opening up deep integration, Vietnam is hard to avoid the effects of those developments. But Vietnam remains calm and copes to develop.
Specifically, in the first 6 months of 2019, the growth of economic sectors remained stable, forecasting the growth of 2019 in Vietnam could reach 6.86%. In particular, Vietnam's economic growth in 2019 may exceed the target set by the National Assembly of 6.6-6.8%; In which, the growth of economic sectors in turn is: agriculture, forestry and fisheries reached 3.02%, industry and construction reached 8.61%, services reached 6.84%. The average inflation in 2019 is expected to be about 3.13% compared to the plan set to control below 4%.
“Vietnam's economic growth is still relatively high compared to other countries in the region. Vietnam's economy continues to grow, but the potential GDP growth still keeps the downward trend, reflecting the concern about the quality of growth - especially when Vietnam pays more attention to cope with adverse impacts from the external economic environment, ”said Nguyen Anh Duong, Head of Macroeconomics Department (CIEM).
|Nguyen Anh Duong, Head of Macroeconomics Department (CIEM) speaking at the workshop|
At the seminar, experts also said that the macro economy in the last 6 months may be affected by a number of factors, notably, despite the high expectations on ratifying EVFTA, Vietnam also It should be noted that the EU is very busy with the trade agenda (related to Brexit, trade negotiations with the US).
Import and export still grows, but exports to CPTPP market have not prospered as expected. “At the end of last year, we talked a lot about CPTPP, but policies and tariffs were still slow. If there is no change, the Vietnam-EU Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) will also be slow to take advantage of as CPTPP. Therefore, it is necessary to quickly perform tasks related to CPTPP, ”Mr. Duong said.
According to the report, the development of the business community is somewhat clearer. Employment situation improved in the second quarter. The labor force aged 15 and over in the economy was estimated at 55.5 million people, an increase of 335.1 thousand people compared to the same period last year.
However, in terms of readiness for future production, Vietnam ranked 70/100 in terms of human resources and 81/100 in terms of highly skilled labor, and not ready for The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). Accordingly, Vietnam needs to build and implement more effectively the active labor market policies, as well as human resource training and vocational education solutions.
The average consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.65% and 2.64% in the second and the first 6 months. In particular, the average inflation in the first 3 months and the first 6 months is much higher than that in the years 2017-2018, requiring Vietnam to continue to operate monetary policy cautiously.
Interest rates are relatively stable in the second quarter, more or less reflecting the efforts of the State Bank in ensuring liquidity for the system of commercial banks.
By the end of the second quarter, credit increased 4.07% compared to the end of the first quarter and 7.33% compared to the end of 2018. The ability to lend credit targets for the whole year of 2019 is quite low, due to the credit ratio GDP is currently high. The State Bank needs to create enough reliable pressure for commercial banks to consolidate capital safety, and the loosening of credit criteria may make the current credit bonus mechanism lose its meaning ... CIEM forecasts exchange rate keeps the upward trend in the second quarter.
In the uncertain world, Vietnam needs to accumulate more experience and calmness to cope with adverse impacts from world economic developments, thereby promoting economic growth, stabilizing the macroeconomy tissue. And Aus4Reform will continue to accompany Vietnam in this process.