Vietnam's growth target for 2021 may be lower than 6%

Vietnam's growth target for 2021 may be lower than 6%

The Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) has proposed two scenarios for Vietnam's growth target in 2021, one of which is lower than 6% set by the National Assembly.

On the morning of July 15, the online workshop "Vietnam's economy in the first 6 months of 2021: Reform for sustainable recovery" was organized by the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) with the support of the Australia Supports Economic Reform in Vietnam (Aus4Reform).

At the workshop, CIEM announced two economic growth scenarios for Vietnam this year.

In an optimistic scenario, Vietnam’s gross domestic product growth will be lower than 6.5 percent targeted by the Government when COVID-19 pandemic is under control in August. If the growth hits 6.2 percent, it will surpass the National Assembly’s target by 0.2 percentage point.

If the pandemic is curbed by October, two months late than the best-case scenario, Vietnam is forecast to expand by 5.9 percent, or 0.1 percentage point lower than the legislature’s target.

Director of the CIEM’s Department for General Economic Studies Nguyen Anh Duong said the Vietnamese economy will continue facing uncertain developments at home and in the world in the last half of this year, including the risk of COVID-19 and coronavirus variants.

Other factors affecting growth include the progress of public investment disbursement, macro-economic stability, facilitation of digital economy and transformation, opportunities from new-generation free trade deals, and chances for female workers.

The CIEM also offered policy orientations regarding domestic migration from a gender-based perspective.

Mdm Tran Thi Hong Minh, CIEM President-Director of Aus4Reform Program spoke at the workshop.

Mdm Tran Thi Hong Minh, CIEM President-Director of Aus4Reform Program suggested three important measures to control the pandemic and propel economic growth, including ensuring the combination between macro-economic policy and reform towards green and sustainable recovery, promoting business recovery and improving internal capacity amid global economic integration, and accelerating innovation and science-technology towards digital economic development.